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Net productivity growth (net exports, capital formation, and productivity growth not from the home) explains most of the growth in pay over the past 35 years, but the growing share of the economy from financial activities has been a key driver of the divergent growth in compensation and productivity.
Other studies also demonstrate the adverse effect on the wages and employment of new labor-displacing technologies on the margin, such as pay-set apps and robotaxis (i.e., self-driving cars) that can reduce the hours and wages of driving, maintenance, and labor jobs (Ackland 2016; Galbraith 2016; Poggio and Scanlon 2019). For instance, a survey of United States workers (n=1,189) by a social media app companies such as Uber, Lyft, and Doordash found that those working as drivers earned $11.98 an hour on average, compared to $17.24 for customer service representatives (Mottinger and Almeida 2015). New employment has declined in the past two years, and employment is now at a seven-year low. In the food service industry in particular, 5,400 restaurants closed their doors in the first three months of 2020, and employment levels are at a three-year low. Restaurants have been hit by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic (McKenna and Mohan 2020).
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The main driver of the divergence from stagnation over time was a highly responsive educational system in the context of slowly changing skill demand. Acknowledging that the goal of education policy is not only to maximize the number of workers but also to maximize the quality of each worker, the decoupling of education from growing relative demand for workers resulted in a slower pace of occupational adjustment but maintained the relative supply of labor for the labor market of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.
According to the calculations shown in Table 3, labor share fell from 67.4% in 1979 to 64.1% in 2017, a decline in labor share of 7.3 percentage points. (This is the decline in labor share as a percentage of income, not as a percent of the total labor force. The later is unchanged at 62.8% from 1979 to 2017.) More telling, labor share has declined by 22.7% since 1979, a huge amount. Average inequality of labor compensation increased from 44% in 1979 to 60% in 2017, a 37.3% increase. Impairments to the labor share of income from rising inequality and the erosion of labor’s share of the national income have been the primary drivers of the 42.7% decline in median hourly compensation since 1979. On the other hand, rising productivity has resulted in a 36.6% increase in median hourly compensation.
A third driver of the decline in labor share of pay is de-unionization. Many studies have shown that when union membership is high, labor’s share of pay is higher. Unions are the only known counterbalancing force to the forces of de-unionization, automation, and skills gaps. The decline in union membership has contributed to the rising labor share of the national income, but, as labor share of pay declines, it is a very important contributor to the decline in labor share of pay.
– 15 – Conclusion: The Rise of Income Inequality And The Decline in the Labor Share of Income And Pay: Our main conclusions are that the decline in labor share of income and the rise in income inequality have been most important drivers of the decline in median hourly compensation of production and non-production workers.
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